Conducting experiments and collecting data for machine learning models is a complex and expensive endeavor, particularly when confronted with limited information. Typically, extensive experiments to obtain features and labels come with a significant acquisition cost, making it impractical to carry out all of them. Therefore, it becomes crucial to strategically determine what to acquire to maximize the predictive performance while minimizing costs.

Causal inference determines cause-and-effect relationships between variables and has broad applications across disciplines. Traditional time-series methods often reveal causal links only in a time-averaged sense, while ensemble-based information transfer approaches detect the time evolution of short-term causal relationships but are typically limited to low-dimensional systems. In this paper, a new causal inference framework, called assimilative causal inference (ACI), is developed. Fundamentally different from the state-of-the-art methods, ACI uses a dynamical system and a single realization of a subset of the state variables to identify instantaneous causal relationships and the dynamic evolution of the associated causal influence range (CIR). Instead of quantifying how causes influence effects as done traditionally, ACI solves an inverse problem via Bayesian data assimilation, thus tracing causes backward from observed effects with an implicit Bayesian hypothesis. Causality is determined by assessing whether incorporating the information of the effect variables reduces the uncertainty in recovering the potential cause variables. ACI has several desirable features. First, it captures the dynamic interplay of variables, where their roles as causes and effects can shift repeatedly over time. Second, a mathematically justified objective criterion determines the CIR without empirical thresholds. Third, ACI is scalable to high-dimensional problems by leveraging computationally efficient Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Finally, ACI applies to short time series and incomplete datasets. Notably, ACI does not require observations of candidate causes, which is a key advantage since potential drivers are often unknown or unmeasured. The effectiveness of ACI is demonstrated by complex dynamical systems showcasing intermittency and extreme events.

In this work, we consider the problem of multi-agent informative path planning (IPP) for robots whose sensor visibility continuously changes as a consequence of a time-varying natural phenomenon. We leverage ergodic trajectory optimization (ETO), which generates paths such that the amount of time an agent spends in an area is proportional to the expected information in that area. We focus specifically on the problem of multi-agent drone search of a wildfire, where we use the time-varying environmental process of smoke diffusion to construct a sensor visibility model. This sensor visibility model is used to repeatedly calculate an expected information distribution (EID) to be used in the ETO algorithm. Our experiments show that our exploration method achieves improved information gathering over both baseline search methods and naive ergodic search formulations.

The rapid development of collaborative robotics has provided a new possibility of helping the elderly who has difficulties in daily life, allowing robots to operate according to specific intentions. However, efficient human-robot cooperation requires natural, accurate and reliable intention recognition in shared environments. The current paramount challenge for this is reducing the uncertainty of multimodal fused intention to be recognized and reasoning adaptively a more reliable result despite current interactive condition. In this work we propose a novel learning-based multimodal fusion framework Batch Multimodal Confidence Learning for Opinion Pool (BMCLOP). Our approach combines Bayesian multimodal fusion method and batch confidence learning algorithm to improve accuracy, uncertainty reduction and success rate given the interactive condition. In particular, the generic and practical multimodal intention recognition framework can be easily extended further. Our desired assistive scenarios consider three modalities gestures, speech and gaze, all of which produce categorical distributions over all the finite intentions. The proposed method is validated with a six-DoF robot through extensive experiments and exhibits high performance compared to baselines.

The ability to accurately predict others' behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of interactive robotics. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents' goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as stochastic hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we use a runtime safety filter (also referred to as a "shielding" scheme), which overrides the robot's dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability agent behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving studies and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

In this letter, we address the problem of exploration and metric-semantic mapping of multi-floor GPS-denied indoor environments using Size Weight and Power (SWaP) constrained aerial robots. Most previous work in exploration assumes that robot localization is solved. However, neglecting the state uncertainty of the agent can ultimately lead to cascading errors both in the resulting map and in the state of the agent itself. Furthermore, actions that reduce localization errors may be at direct odds with the exploration task. We propose a framework that balances the efficiency of exploration with actions that reduce the state uncertainty of the agent. In particular, our algorithmic approach for active metric-semantic SLAM is built upon sparse information abstracted from raw problem data, to make it suitable for SWaP-constrained robots. Furthermore, we integrate this framework within a fully autonomous aerial robotic system that achieves autonomous exploration in cluttered, 3D environments. From extensive real-world experiments, we showed that by including Semantic Loop Closure (SLC), we can reduce the robot pose estimation errors by over 90% in translation and approximately 75% in yaw, and the uncertainties in pose estimates and semantic maps by over 70% and 65%, respectively. Although discussed in the context of indoor multi-floor exploration, our system can be used for various other applications, such as infrastructure inspection and precision agriculture where reliable GPS data may not be available.

Graph neural networks have achieved significant success in representation learning. However, the performance gains come at a cost; acquiring comprehensive labeled data for training can be prohibitively expensive. Active learning mitigates this issue by searching the unexplored data space and prioritizing the selection of data to maximize model's performance gain. In this paper, we propose a novel method SMARTQUERY, a framework to learn a graph neural network with very few labeled nodes using a hybrid uncertainty reduction function. This is achieved using two key steps: (a) design a multi-stage active graph learning framework by exploiting diverse explicit graph information and (b) introduce label propagation to efficiently exploit known labels to assess the implicit embedding information. Using a comprehensive set of experiments on three network datasets, we demonstrate the competitive performance of our method against state-of-the-arts on very few labeled data (up to 5 labeled nodes per class).

Combining the outputs of multiple classifiers or experts into a single probabilistic classification is a fundamental task in machine learning with broad applications from classifier fusion to expert opinion pooling. Here we present a hierarchical Bayesian model of probabilistic classifier fusion based on a new correlated Dirichlet distribution. This distribution explicitly models positive correlations between marginally Dirichlet-distributed random vectors thereby allowing normative modeling of correlations between base classifiers or experts. The proposed model naturally accommodates the classic Independent Opinion Pool and other independent fusion algorithms as special cases. It is evaluated by uncertainty reduction and correctness of fusion on synthetic and real-world data sets. We show that a change in performance of the fused classifier due to uncertainty reduction can be Bayes optimal even for highly correlated base classifiers.

Active learning aims to reduce labeling efforts by selectively asking humans to annotate the most important data points from an unlabeled pool and is an example of human-machine interaction. Though active learning has been extensively researched for classification and ranking problems, it is relatively understudied for regression problems. Most existing active learning for regression methods use the regression function learned at each active learning iteration to select the next informative point to query. This introduces several challenges such as handling noisy labels, parameter uncertainty and overcoming initially biased training data. Instead, we propose a feature-focused approach that formulates both sequential and batch-mode active regression as a novel bipartite graph optimization problem. We conduct experiments on both noise-free and noisy settings. Our experimental results on benchmark data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.